Our plays: Kentucky to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday night, and the Texans to beat the Giants on Sunday. Each week we pick one college game and one NFL game where the favorite looks least likely to lose. Our range is favorites priced from +100 to −400 on the moneyline, plus alternate spreads priced from −250 to −400. This week both favorites sit right at the top of that range, and only Kalshi has them there, so the price matters more than usual. Both of last week's picks won.
How to read the odds
- Moneyline (ML) is a bet on who wins. −400 means you risk $400 to win $100. +340 means a $100 bet wins $340.
- The spread is about the margin. Kentucky −10.5 means Kentucky has to win by 11 or more.
- The over/under (O/U) is a bet on the two teams' combined points.
- Kalshi prices are in cents. Paying 80 cents to win $1 is the same as −400.
This weekend's games
- Last week's picks: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21, and Patriots 26, Jets 19. Both won (ESPN).
- Last week's games to watch: Tulane beat Memphis 31-17, so our Memphis lean lost. Ohio State won 19-15 at Indiana, BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 (we passed on Notre Dame), and Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14 (ESPN).
- Oregon at Illinois, Sat Oct 24, 3:00 pm ET, BTN: ORE −8.5, ML −355 (DraftKings via ESPN, Thu 9:42 am ET)
- Ole Miss at Texas, Sat Oct 24, 7:30 pm ET, ABC: TEX −3.5, ML −162, O/U 53.5 (DraftKings via ESPN, Thu 9:42 am ET)
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky, Sat Oct 24, 7:30 pm ET, SEC Network: UK −10.5 (−110), ML −440, O/U 51.5 (DraftKings via ESPN, Thu 9:42 am ET)
- Giants at Texans, Sun Oct 25, 1:00 pm ET, FOX: HOU −10.5 (−108), ML −535, O/U 42.5 (DraftKings via ESPN, Thu 9:42 am ET)
- 49ers at Falcons, Sun Oct 25, 1:00 pm ET, FOX: SF −2.5, ML −155 (DraftKings via ESPN, Thu 9:42 am ET)
Our college pick: Kentucky to beat Vanderbilt
- Kentucky ML on Kalshi: 80 cents to buy (−400), 79 cents to sell (Kalshi, Thu 9:42 am ET)
- Kentucky ML at sportsbooks: −440 at DraftKings, Caesars, BetOnline and BetUS, −450 at FanDuel, BetMGM and Fanatics, −455 at BetRivers, −460 at Bovada, −469 at MyBookie (The Sharp Edition, Thu 8:20 am ET)
- A note on price: every sportsbook is above our −400 limit. Kalshi at 80 cents is right on it. At 81 cents or more, we pass.
ESPN's FPI gives Kentucky an 84.6% chance to win, a bit higher than the roughly 80% the price implies. Kentucky is 6-1 and has won five straight, including 31-21 at Texas A&M and 21-13 at Oklahoma. Vanderbilt is 3-4 and has lost four of its last five, including 52-17 to Ole Miss. Its defense allows 33.2 points a game, near the bottom of the country.
Injuries cut both ways. Kentucky is thin in the secondary, with cornerbacks Jaden Smith and Grant Grayton out and linebacker Sam Greene doubtful. Running back CJ Baxter is probable to return. Vanderbilt's starting quarterback, Jared Curtis, will play, but its backup quarterback and edge rusher Brian Allen Jr. are out.
The risk: Kentucky wins close a lot. Two of its five straight wins came in overtime, 35-34 at South Carolina and 35-34 over LSU, and its offense is ordinary. That is why this is a pick on who wins, not on the spread.
Our NFL pick: Texans to beat the Giants
- Texans ML on Kalshi: 81 cents to buy (about −426), 80 cents to sell (Kalshi, Thu 9:42 am ET)
- Texans ML at sportsbooks: −475 at BetOnline, BetUS and LowVig, −500 at BetMGM, BetRivers and Bovada, −535 at DraftKings, −549 at MyBookie, −550 at FanDuel (sportsanalysis.info, Thu 8:47 am ET)
- Line move: the spread opened Texans −5.5 and is now −10.5 (ESPN).
- A note on price: this one has moved past our limit since Monday, when Kalshi was 79 cents. We only take it at 80 cents (−400) or better. If it stays higher, we move to a backup when we lock the picks on Friday.
ESPN's FPI gives Houston an 84.5% chance to win. Houston is 2-4 but has won two straight, 26-3 at Tennessee and 34-31 over Jacksonville in London. Receiver Tank Dell returns this week for the first time since December 2024.
The Giants are 3-2-1, but they are changing quarterbacks. J.J. McCarthy, who arrived in a trade with Minnesota about three weeks ago, makes his first start for them after replacing Jameis Winston in last week's 34-27 loss to New Orleans. Starting quarterback Jaxson Dart is out for the season.
The risks are real. Houston is 0-3 at home this year and is coming back from London. McCarthy threw for 243 yards in one quarter last week, so he can make this close. Both teams have their bye after this game, so neither is looking ahead.
The game to watch: Ole Miss at Texas
- Texas ML: −162 at DraftKings, Ole Miss +136 (DraftKings via ESPN, Thu 9:42 am ET). Kalshi has Texas at 59 cents (Thu 9:42 am ET).
- Spread: Texas −3.5 at DraftKings. The over/under is 53.5.
Texas is 4-2 and has lost two straight by three points, 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida. That includes our view two weeks ago that Texas would beat Oklahoma, which was wrong. Ole Miss is 5-1 and has outscored Vanderbilt and Missouri 83-20 in its last two games. Its only loss was at Florida.
The Texas pass rush is short-handed. Colin Simmons, who left the Florida game leading the country in sacks, is doubtful with a high ankle sprain, and Richard Wesley is out. Running back Hollywood Smothers is questionable. Ole Miss is missing cornerback Edwin Joseph and safeties MJ Preston and Nascar McCoy. This is close to a coin flip, and outside our range of favorites we trust. We are watching, not picking.
Sources
Odds: ESPN odds feed (DraftKings), and the Kalshi public market board, pulled Thu Oct 22, 9:42 am ET; The Sharp Edition (Thu 8:20 am ET) and sportsanalysis.info (Thu 8:47 am ET) book-by-book boards. Win chances: ESPN FPI. Injuries: SEC availability report via Yahoo Sports, KSR, The Tennessean, SI and The Southern Line; NFL injury lists via ESPN. Giants quarterback: Giants.com, NFL.com, CBS Sports. Results and stats: ESPN. All times ET.
Lines as of 9:45 am ET, Oct 22, 2026.
Not betting advice. This is for information only. Odds change, so check the current price before you bet.
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